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Global Divergence

Growth expectations are diverging

Note: Forecast taken from a consensus of ~40 economists polled by Bloomberg on a rolling  basis.
Sources: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Asset Management as of 14.02.2023


The macroeconomic environment in 2023 remains an unusual one for investors. Whether you look at the U.S., the EU, Asia, or other parts of the world, traditional economic indicators are presenting mixed signals, confounding markets and central banks alike. Are we in the early stages of the business cycle or heading toward a recession, as some suggest? While it still seems likely that global economic activity will slow down in 2023, pockets of the economy continue to grow, leading to an increasingly differentiated and diverse market landscape and creating opportunities for those who know where to look for them.

Emerging markets

Emerging markets stand to benefit from tactical and thematic tailwinds, while remaining underrepresented in many investors’ portfolios. Is it time for emerging markets to live up to their promise?

Raise rates fast and break things

Banking stress adds to market volatility for investors and policymakers.

Divergence

Aggressively rising rates are a driver and product of diverging economic fundamentals adding to ongoing market volatility.

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Please note the following risks

  • Potential loss: There is no capital protection for investors. They may receive back less than they invested.
  • Market risk: Market conditions can trigger fluctuations in total returns.
  • Exposure to emerging markets: Investments in emerging markets entail greater risks than investments in industrialized countries. These risks include a certain degree of political instability, relatively unpredictable financial markets still in the developmental stage, and dependence on the economic situation.
  • Liquidity risk: Some investments may entail liquidity risk.
  • Foreign currency risk: A given investment’s total value can be adversely affected by exchange rate fluctuations.
  • Company-specific risk: If an investee company becomes insolvent, investors may lose all of their invested capital.

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