Article

The city of the future

According to the United Nations’ estimates, 2007 was the first year in which more people around the world lived in urban areas than in rural ones.

May 20, 2021

Facts

Today, 55% of the world’s population lives in cities. The United Nations predicts that number will be as high as 70% by 2050.¹
Global cites take up 3% of the Earth’s surface, but they are responsible for 60% to 80% of energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions.²
Cities are major consumers of energy. This is also seen in the worldwide consumption of primary energy in 2019. China used just under 142 exajoules, making it the largest consumer worldwide. Other major energy consumers include the US (94.65 exajoules), with India (34.06 exajoules) and Russia (29.81 exajoules) following far behind. By comparison, Switzerland consumes 1.12 exajoules.³

Urban–rural distribution

United Nations’ forecast of urban–rural population distribution⁴

Megacities

By 2030, the world will have as many as 43 megacities with over 10 million inhabitants. Until 1975, there were only three megacities: New York, Tokyo, and Mexico City.
The majority of megacities, a total of 27, will be located in Asia in 2030. The United Nations predicts three of them will be found in Europe: London, Moscow, and Paris.
Megacities were spread out over the globe in 2018. By 2030, they will be mainly situated in developing countries. In industrialized nations, urbanization is almost complete and shifting to the southern hemisphere. Today, approximately 80% of people in industrialized nations already live in cities.⁵

Size of cities

Tokyo is the world’s biggest city, with a metropolitan area consisting of 37 million inhabitants, followed by New Delhi with 29 million, Shanghai with 26 million, and Mexico City and São Paulo, each with roughly 22 million residents.
Every week, 1.4 million people around the world move into cities.

Population density by country⁷Inhabitants per square kilometer

Population density by city and urban region⁸Inhabitants per square kilometer

Silver cities

People around the world are living longer. According to projections, just under 2.5 million people in Switzerland will be over the age of 65 in 2040. In 2018, that number was around 1.5 million people.⁹
The increase in life expectancy is posing new challenges to countries such as China. While in excess of 151 million people in China were over 65 in 2018, forecasts indicate that number is expected to more than double by 2040, leaping to over 343 million.¹⁰
An aging urban population requires new infrastructure and mobility planning. More mobile service and infrastructure offerings are being created. This trend is also impacting residential models and living arrangements. In the US, towns have already been established where residents have to be over the age of 65 to move in. Another form is the integrated, multigenerational household in which young and old live under one roof.

Guaranteed quality of life

Top ten ranking of cities with the highest quality of life in 2019¹¹

There is no way to imagine today’s cities without coliving, cohousing, coworking, comobility, and cogardening. The sharing economy has taken hold, with corresponding effects on cities. In the future, there will be more multifunctional residential and living spaces that intelligently link private areas with common areas, creating a high quality of life.

The public transportation of the future will adapt to the needs of passengers. It will be possible to request self-driving buses by smartphone, and the bus stops will be where passengers actually need to get on and off.
Private transportation will also become automated. Cars will drive themselves, allowing commuters to carry out other activities during the trip.
Smart transportation management will ensure the safe and efficient flow of traffic. There will no longer be any permanently installed traffic signs or traffic lights. The network will recognize bottlenecks and redirect road users automatically.

Aiming high

Cities are not only growing larger, but also higher.
1. Jeddah Tower (under construction), Saudi Arabia
2. Burj Khalifa, UAE
3. Shanghai Tower, China
4. Abraj Al-Bait Clock Tower, Saudi-Arabia
5. Ping An Finance Center, China

Single households versus multi-person households

Being single has surpassed raising a family as a model for society. In 1919, over 50% of Swiss people lived in a household with five or more people, and only 12% lived alone or with one other person. As of 2019, the figure for the latter group was almost half (46%).¹² This trend will continue to accelerate. According to forecasts, over 70% of Swiss people are expected to be living in one-to-two-person households by 2045. Residential planning is being adapted as a result because smaller apartments are more in demand than ever before.

Smart cities

Connectivity is crucial to the city of the future. Urban systems and infrastructures are connected to one another and share information in real time. Resources are used where they are actually needed – whether that is in waste disposal, traffic management, energy and water supplies, or healthcare. Trash is picked up as soon as the garbage can is full. Cars find available parking spaces on their own. Connected surveillance cameras ensure more urban security, and buildings allow rooms to be occupied depending on air quality.

Glossary

Metropolitan area

Metropolitan areas are interlinked communities, also referred to as conurbations, that have a high population density. They often form a ring around core cities and grow together as the city expands. City sizes vary depending on whether the metropolitan area is counted as part of the city.

Population density

The ratio of inhabitants to the total area of individual states is called population density. Buildings are erected closer and closer together so more people can live and work in the same total area.

Garden city

The concept of a garden city was originally created by Ebenezer Howard in response to the poor living conditions in England’s major cities in 1898. Howard had a permanent impact on urban planning because his idea focused on building settlements in a ring around the core and surrounding them with greenbelts.

Global cities

Innovative and creative cities are increasingly becoming economic, cultural, and political hubs. A global city assumes key control functions because it links regional, national, and international markets for finance, services, and goods. Examples include New York City, London, Hong Kong, and Paris.

Megacity

The term megacity is used to describe to urban centers with more than 10 million residents.

Microhousing

Microhousing refers to having as much quality of life as possible in the smallest possible space. Tiny houses are an expression of that. They combine cozy amenities with efficient use of space. At the forefront of this trend is Japan. On average, each resident of Tokyo has 19 m². of living space available to them. The microhousing movement is spreading more and more and is popular both in cities and among modern-day nomads.

Rural cities

Many city dwellers long for life in a rural idyll. Urban developers, but also mainly the citizens themselves, are creating country-like, stress-free spaces close to nature in their cities. These may take the form of urban gardening or green spaces for shared usage, for example.

Smart cities

The term smart city refers to an urban area with intelligently connected buildings and infrastructure. Sharing data optimizes the city in terms of its economic and ecological aspects as well as the quality of life.

Urban development

The purpose of urban development is to enable the holistic and long-term expansion of built-up areas. Because of social and demographic change and urbanization, new factors – such as climate change and changing models of living – are playing a more important role. City planners take these factors into account during the development of urban areas, with the aim of increasing the quality of life and the location’s attractiveness to residents and businesses.

Urban climate

Cities develop their own climate, and the climate has a significant influence on the health and quality of life of their residents. It is affected by a variety of factors such as soil sealing, the presence of vegetation, and the thermal energy storage of buildings. Characteristics of a harmful urban climate include increased temperatures, poor air quality, and little ventilation. City planners attempt to actively combat those elements.

Urbanization

The term urbanization refers to the spread of urban living models and the behavior of the population. Compared to the concept of urban sprawl, which refers to geographic spreading, urbanization also involves social change.

Densification

Urban densification refers to downtown areas of cities with high densities of population, buildings, infrastructure, and mobility. They accommodate a large number of people, living spaces, and means of transportation over a very small area.
A successful approach to and execution of the densification process usually determines what quality of life the entire city or even the region will have.

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¹ https://population.un.org/wup/
² https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019
³ https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/12887/umfrage/primaerenergieverbrauch-ausgewaehlter-nationen/
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/42435/umfrage/schweiz---primaerenergieverbrauch-ausgewaehlter-brennstoffein-millionen-tonnen-oelaequivalent/
⁴ https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
⁵ https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
⁶ https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf
⁷ https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
⁸ https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bev%C3%B6lkerungsdichte
https://www.wissenschaft.de/allgemein/tokio-in-zahlen/
⁹ https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/aktuell/neue-veroeffentlichungen.assetdetail.12847542.html
¹⁰ https://knoema.com/atlas/China/Population-aged-65-years-and-above
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:CHN:IND&hl=de&dl=de
https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
¹¹ https://www.mercer.ch/newsroom/quality-of-living-2019.html
¹² https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/bevoelkerung/stand-entwicklung/haushalte.html

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